Episode 1420: Have Mercy
Date August 21, 2019 Summary Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller banter about Shohei Ohtani, Mike Trout, and the most compelling playoff races remaining, introduce the new Effectively Wild listener email archive, then answer emails about whether a team in a three-team race suffers or benefits when its opponents play each other, whether home runs hit off of position players should be valued lower than others and whether an MLB mercy rule is a good idea, whether players should earn WAR for helping other players, whether fouling off a pitch down the middle can coincide with a good swing, and the most pitcher wins in a season against a single opponent in the divisional era, plus a Stat Blast about Shooty Babitt, Troy Neel, and the shortest careers by players who received Rookie of the Year votes. Topics * Should home runs hit off position players be valued differently? * Adjusting WAR for quality of competition * Implementing a mercy rule in blowouts * Shortest careers by Rookie of the Year candidates * Earning WAR for off-field contributions * Proper terminology when fouling a pitch down the middle * Most pitcher wins against the same team in a season Intro The Walkmen, "Postcards From Tiny Islands" Outro Blondie, "Island of Lost Souls" Banter * Episode 1419 follow-up: Could Shohei Ohtani dethrone Mike Trout as baseball's best player? * Ben and Sam discuss Shohei Ohtani's value as a two-way player and a recent article Ben wrote advocating for Ohtani to still pitch and hit. * Mike Trout set a new career high with his 42nd home run. Sam plans to write about how Trout passed Derek Jeter in WAR this month even though Jeter is not yet in the Hall of Fame. * Which playoff race is the most compelling? * What fans should root for when their team is in a three-way race for a playoff spot * Ben introduces the Effectively Wild email archive, a complete database of all emails answered on the show. Email Questions * Mike: "I was actually current today listening in on the Mike Trout decline discussion, and I felt like Sam never married his two points, which seems to me the most likely way Trout is surpassed: At some point, whether via decline in foot speed, or perhaps because of the physical demands being matched up with injury, Trout won't be a defensive asset. He'll either move down below average in CF, or pre-emptively be moved to a corner to save the wear on his body. He'll hit the same, but he'll now be a 7-8 win player instead of a 9-10 win one, and that's when he'll get surpassed by a great young player who is still at a premium position. It will be really subtle, you'll get a 9 win season or an 8.8 or an 8.5 for a year or two and then you'll turn around and realize that Trout's still got a 190 OPS+ but he's lost 2 or 3 wins worth of positional value, and someone playing ultra-elite defense (like Betts/Bellinger) or playing an ultra-premium position well (like Tatis) will have a starting advantage of 3 or 4 wins. And non-sabermetric commentators won't even notice, and probably will complain and argue and insist that Trout remains the best player in the league, because his batting line will be the same, but his batting line with the defensive value of Juan Soto, as you guys mentioned just an episode or two ago, is not something that can lead MLB in WAR." * John: “Do you think teams in a three-team division or wild card race benefit or suffer when the other two teams in the race play each other? It may be an easy answer, but I can't seem to decide whether the guaranteed win (and loss) - the safe choice - is better than gambling and risking two wins for a chance at seeing two losses (from your opponents) when those opponents are playing teams outside of their division (or non-contenders within their division)? Thoughts?” * Lucas: "Now that position players are being used to pitch in blowout games often, should home runs by players that are hit off position players be valued less than home runs hit off actually pitchers?" * Matt: "While going down a Baseball Reference rabbit hole, I ended up on the page for 1981 awards voting. On there, I was struck by something on the AL Rookie of the Year results. Shooty Babitt finished fifth in the voting despite putting up a .615 OPS. I had never heard of him before and clicked his page only to learn that 1981 was the only season in which Babitt played in the majors. It doesn't seem to be the case that he suffered some catastrophic injury. as he played in the minors the next season. It just seems to be that he wasn't good enough to ever make it back. Even if it was just one voter that saw something that literally no one else saw, it seems wild that someone theoretically good enough to get ROTY votes could also disappear that quick without ever getting another cup of coffee at some point. My question is, is there anyone who's had a shorter career but still received award votes? If not, is there are weirder career arc than that?" * James: "Really enjoyed Meg and Ben’s discussion about Bobby Wallace from Sam’s July Trout Tracker article. The article was great. I had never heard of Wallace, and while I agree with Sam that Trout is a better player than Trout according to WAR, I wonder if Wallace – who essentially invented modern throwing – should get a WAR dividend for all the put-outs and assists that have been made possible by his invention. Does the invention of throwing a baseball - or any other fundamental baseball functions - add more value than being the current best ever player? Should we give credit to the pioneers as if they hold the patent? And if we did, what would Wallace’s WAR be?" * K.A: "Baseball Definition: During the KC/DET game today there was a pitch down the middle that the batter swung at and fouled off. The announced called it a good swing. Is it a good swing if you hit a ball down the middle foul?" * Jamie: "Jose Quintana just won his fourth game in four starts in four series vs. the Pirates. The Cubs and the Pirates have two more series remaining this season. Under the current schedule format divisional opponents typically play six series vs. one another each year. Under this format has any starting pitcher ever won six starts vs.one opponent?" Stat Blast * The Stat Blast is based off Matt's email and his discussion of Shooty Babitt. * Sam reviews Babitt's qualifications for receiving Rookie of the Year votes and concluded that it was reasonable for him to have gotten multiple votes. * Babitt is the only player to receive Rookie of the Year votes and never play again. * Sam also discusses the career and personal history of Troy Neel. Neel signed to play in Japan after the strike shortened his second full MLB season, at the same time also getting divorced. After coming back to the US he fled the country to avoid child support payments. Eventually Neel pled guilty, at the time he owed hundreds of thousands of dollars in payments. Notes * Ben and Sam consider if MLB instituted a mercy rule that would end games early when one team had a 10 run or larger lead after 7 innings. There have been 118 games this season that met this criteria. Since the 1920s only two games that met this criteria have had a team mount a successful comeback to win the game. * There have been 1,954 emails to date answered on Effectively Wild, 119 of them have been directly about Mike Trout. * In the divisional era there are 6 times that a pitcher has won 6 starts against a single team during the same season. Links * Effectively Wild Episode 1420: Have Mercy * Let Ohtani Play Two-Way by Ben Lindbergh * Effectively Wild Email Archive * We've Reached Peak Position Players Pitching by Jay Jaffe * Are position players actually good pitchers? Yes - and definitely no by Sam Miller * Aaron Boone Agrees It May Be Time For MLB To Look At Mercy Rule by Sweeny Murti * No Mercy by Lucas Apostoleris * An MVP case for J.D. Martinez that has nothing to do with the Triple Crown by Ken Rosenthal * How the Tribe found its next pair of aces by Matt Kelly Category:Email Episodes Category:Episodes